The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

The Archive forum serves as a repository for topics that have been closed from the other forums. They serve as a database for future reference.
Locked
dnivas
BGR Newbie
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:20 am

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by dnivas » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:12 am

MP back to even. Source hindu.

Vikas
BGR Member
Posts: 389
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:12 am

Funny If others lose then it is incumbency but if BJP loses, Then all blame to Modi for his anti-Hindu policies.
Don't forget that BJP has run Govt for donkey number of years in MP and CG and it is normal for people to get bored and look at other parties. Nothing abnormal here IMO.
Not every loss is worth Rudali act and its OK to lose sometimes.
Whether BJP wins or loses in 2019, this win has made life difficult for Non-Congress, Non-BJP parties for 2019.

Aditya_V
BGR Member
Posts: 344
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:26 am

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:39 am

Saar you seriously expect the lead of 44 sets 12% votes to be bridged?

Gus
Forum Moderator
Posts: 570
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:59 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:41 am

have to check vote tallies as well, not just seats. vote tallies matter more for LS calculations due to makeup of electorate.

overall, this is disappointing for sure, but not a drubbing. vote percentages are neck to neck as well.

and more annoying than the results are the amount of folks pushing their "told you so" agendas gleefully.

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:50 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:12 am
BTW, the CG election is at a very early stage. Same thing happened in 2013. The BJP tally is rapidly increasing now.
CG I think is a lost case for BJP. No point expecting an wonders there. Looks like A.Shah and N.Modi grossly miscalculated the situation in CG.

KL Dubey
BGR Member
Posts: 397
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:39 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:54 am

Aditya_V wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:39 am
Saar you seriously expect the lead of 44 sets 12% votes to be bridged?
The fact that the vote share difference listed so far in CG is 12% means very few of the BJP polling booth EVMs have been counted. Vote share differences between BJP and INC are less than 1% usually.

In 2013, at 2:30 PM BJP was at 25 seats and INC was at 60. By 5 PM the situation was very different.

JohnTitor
BGR Member
Posts: 422
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:09 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:00 am

syam wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:53 am
I am amazed with how smart the general so called 'core' 'awakened' hindus are.

"Vikas is not needed. Only Mandir and RTE and free up temples. All things will be fixed over night." :facepalm:
Show me one post where someone has asked for the bolded portion.. the rest of your post can be dismissed because it starts with the wrong assumption.

If that is what you think the "Core" wants then we have nothing further to discuss.

hanumadu
BGR Oldie
Posts: 606
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:20 am

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:02 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:54 am
Aditya_V wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:39 am
Saar you seriously expect the lead of 44 sets 12% votes to be bridged?
The fact that the vote share difference listed so far in CG is 12% means very few of the BJP polling booth EVMs have been counted. Vote share differences between BJP and INC are less than 1% usually.

In 2013, at 2:30 PM BJP was at 25 seats and INC was at 60. By 5 PM the situation was very different.
But the counting would be random, doesn't it? There would be multiple counting stations and votes all across the state would be counted in random order, won't they?

Last time there was a sympathy wave for congress. This time there was none and Raman Singh was expected to win comfortably. Big surprise.

KL Dubey
BGR Member
Posts: 397
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:39 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:15 am

hanumadu wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:02 am
But the counting would be random, doesn't it? There would be multiple counting stations and votes all across the state would be counted in random order, won't they?
I believe it is not random, the EVMs are counted in some particular sequence.

hanumadu
BGR Oldie
Posts: 606
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:20 am

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:17 am

How hard is it to understand Core is made up of well fed, well clothed, well educated Hindus? You increase their number, the Core number will also increase. There is no short cut to it and it is not happening in one or two terms.

The Core can rally behind the only party that might give us a realistic chance of survival or might as well take us all with them.

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:21 am

hanumadu wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:02 am
But the counting would be random, doesn't it? There would be multiple counting stations and votes all across the state would be counted in random order, won't they?
The counting AFAIK happens in the following way.
1. There are counting centres spread across the state at various "election districts".
2. These "election districts" will have all the EVMs/Ballot boxes of the constituencies in that "election district".
3. Multiple teams start counting the votes
4. Generally postal ballots etc. are counted first (as it is a time consuming process). Initial leads etc. are based on the postal ballot tallies.
5. Then the counting from EVM machines start. Here again, some flip-flops can happen (when EVMs used from specific booths; show a marked trend favouring one candidate).
6. So for drastic changes to happen at a constituency level; there should be many EVMs being counted now having majority votes casted for one candidate (here BJP candidate).

PS: A similar had had happened in Tripura elections. The commies were leading, but Sambit Patra was categorically saying that he trusts his Karyakartas and they have been saying that EVMs from BJP strong holds are yet to be counted. But that kind of assurance is not coming from CG, which means that the deal is done & dusted.
KL Dubey wrote:I believe it is not random, the EVMs are counted in some particular sequence.
There is a sequence for that. But even then a drastic change in the lead at a specific constituency can only happen when; at every constituency level EVMs from booths where BJP expects a huge voting, has not been counted and they are now slowly getting counted. But if that has to happen, it should have happened by now. It is also because of this counting style politicians also know which "areas" in their constituency voted for them and against them. Gerrymandering of constituencies also happen based on this data.

KL Dubey
BGR Member
Posts: 397
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:39 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:28 am

^^Well, it is impossible to believe that the party CG election team could not predict a vote swing of -8% away from BJP and no change in Congi vote share! I don't know how the results will finally look like, but there is something seriously incomplete about the picture here.

Deans
BGR Newbie
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:46 am

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Deans » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:38 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:28 am
^^Well, it is impossible to believe that the party CG election team could not predict a vote swing of -8% away from BJP and no change in Congi vote share! I don't know how the results will finally look like, but there is something seriously incomplete about the picture here.
The State assembly election since 2014 have on an average, a 7% drop in BJP vote share compared to GE 2014. This 7% varied from 3.5% in UP
to 10% in Gujarat & in C'garh today. (it was 7% in Karnataka). The difference may be the Modi factor and fear of an unstable alliance at the centre.

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:39 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:28 am
^^Well, it is impossible to believe that the party CG election team could not predict a vote swing of -8% away from BJP and no change in Congi vote share! I don't know how the results will finally look like, but there is something seriously incomplete about the picture here.
Yes. Either the CG election team happily tricked A.Shah & Co by giving cooked up numbers. Or else, there was serious case of ignoring CG "assuming" that things would be just be pro-BJP there. This could be one area which BJP will have to do some deep dive analysis on. [strike]BTW, things are changing in MP for the better, I feel[/strike].

Indrad
BGR Oldie
Posts: 738
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 am

Chattisgharh is alarming. Maoist-Missionary nexus is going to be back in business with Congress help.

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:08 am

Indrad wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 am
Chattisgharh is alarming. Maoist-Missionary nexus is going to be back in business with Congress help.
Yes. The CRPF etc. would now be pulled back (or made to work with both hands tied). And now that you brought up this point, looks like BJP folks (including their security advisors) did not figure out that the EJs would really work hard to overthrow the "communal" BJP. Especially when the state govt and GoI was working over time to clean up Chattisgarh.

Indrad
BGR Oldie
Posts: 738
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:09 am



@sushantsareen

When a political party starts believing it's own hype & propaganda about performance, refuses to listen to voices from the ground, disregards reports of distress as motivated, and treats everyone who points to its faults and mistakes as an enemy, it digs a hole for itself

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:12 am

Indrad wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:09 am
@sushantsareen
When a political party starts believing it's own hype & propaganda about performance, refuses to listen to voices from the ground, disregards reports of distress as motivated, and treats everyone who points to its faults and mistakes as an enemy, it digs a hole for itself
Perhaps this was what exactly caused the INC rout in Lok Sabha elections in 2014. The BJP did seem to have "assumed" a lots of things. And all said and done this was also a time when state elections were also given very big coverage by the main stream media. BJP had a bigger task; fight state level elections and win, at the same time also plan for Lok Sabha elections and then try to win there as well. Now compare this with CPI(M) and CPI who don't have any such tensions as they only expect to do well in Kerala.

Indrad
BGR Oldie
Posts: 738
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:12 am

Acc to ECI site

MP> Con 113, BJP 106

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:16 am

Indrad wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:12 am
MP> Con 113, BJP 106
A news media reported that leads of INC in around 10 seats is around 500 votes. But going by the trend, I guess MP is gone too.

Indrad
BGR Oldie
Posts: 738
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:17 am

26 seats in Madhya Pradesh where gap between the winner & loser is less than 1000 votes

55 seats where gap between the winner & loser is less than 2000 votes

87 seats where gap between the winner & loser is less than 5000 votes

Indrad
BGR Oldie
Posts: 738
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:19 am

:facepalm: :facepalm:
“We will win by big margin.”

“We will win.”

“These are early trends.”

“Still early trends.”

“Let us wait for final count.”

“We are doing better than expected.”

“Anti-incumbency, so expected.”

“Defeat not as big as expected.”

“This will not affect 2019.”

Indrad
BGR Oldie
Posts: 738
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:37 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:24 am

MP Con 115 BJP 105

Singha
Forum Moderator
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:59 am

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Singha » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:02 am

while bjp vs congis battle of jutland was going in full flow in MP and Raj and all big battlewagons hovering there...unknown silent and deadly the real heavy torpedo under the water was chattisgarh.

its strategic location will now be a ideal base for defeated naxals in bihar, jharkhand , odisha to tie up with nefarious ej's and stir the pot. introduce again the arc of instability from western WB to southern Telengana.

the central leadership of the BJP I feel has become a bit predictable and enemies have become agile and smart. they need to do proper post mortem and come up a plan to contest this 'marriage of convenience' alliances being made by congis in each state and the insurgent mode of warfare using media, caste, religion in well targeted doses to scare off the middle of road voter and mobilize their own voters.

Vikas
BGR Member
Posts: 389
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:17 am

Why so much Hai-Toba on losing state elections. you win some, you lose some, life goes on. Blaming Hindus for not voting BJP in is so funny cuz those who voted congress in are not some aliens.
Poor Amit Shah or NM can not win all the elections whatever the wizardry they apply.
Now onus is on Congress to show that they can deliver on all their promises of "We will do this and that in 10 days".
At least now we have clear challenger to NM in 2019.
Am already feeling sorry for Mamta, Mayawati, Mulayam,Pawar, AK as their chances of becoming PM as gone down the drain.
Well played BJP!!

Locked