The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:43 pm

Good that this happened now. Otherwise complacency would have set in for 2019 and the ground waves would have been missed. This gives a chance to calibrate and restrategise.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Dumal » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:01 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:07 am
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/mad ... 2018-11-10
The Congress has promised to waive off farm loans at nationalised as well as state government cooperative banks and reduce electricity bills of farmers by 50 per cent.
The party has further promised Rs 10,000 as unemployment allowance for one young member per family for a period of three years and Rs 51,000 at the time of a girl's marriage. Besides this, a provision for an amount of Rs 2.50 lakh for the construction of houses of landless people on a plot of 450 sq feet has also been mentioned in the manifesto. Reduction in fuel prices and cooking gas has been promised.
There are many people who ask, including on this forum, that what did Modi do to the middle class and salaried class. He is robbing middle class to pay to the poor who never vote him. So they wan't to teach him a lesson.

Who is getting taught here? I wonder where this money is going to come from? From the future of the children of salaried middle class. Enjoy.
Yep! This will be a classic execution of the BIF strategy that as a nation, we fall for again and again, digging ourselves in deeper and deeper.

The only hope is this setback sets our asses on fire to go out to vote in 2019 and get ourselves at least the next 5 years of hard work! If 2014 can set the fire to the asses of the BIF and get them to fight tooth and nail so far, I hope it can for us too!

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by darshhan » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:01 pm

Supratik wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:27 pm
Patch up with SS in MH, give Patels reservation in GJ, align with Ajit Jogi in CG (he took part of the tribal vote).
Marathas have already been given reservation in Maharashtra. Even Patels can be given reservation similarly. Ajit jogi got almost 7.5% of vote. Giving 1 or 2 seats to him should be ok i.e if he is amenable to it.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by abhik » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:08 pm

Folks should stop blaming the people. Our ideal politician should follow the principal's of sama, dana, danda and bheda. In a democracy that means explaining one's policies to those who will listen, bribing the ones who are willing to be bought, ripping open chasms when advantageous and hounding the implacable ones. Stop bitching about "entitled" middle class, "lazy" villagers and short sighted hindutva people - Do you want their votes or not? If yes, are you going to do what it takes to get their votes or not?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by sbajwa » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:39 pm

Kabir wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:22 pm
I guess the election results show that those Hindus care for neither Vikas nor Hindutva. They want to fault current governments for not fulfilling their personal whims and fancies. They had voted congress out because of the scams and incumbency, and now voted BJP out because of incumbency and their newly developing dislike for Modi. No Hindu in their right frame of mind would vote for the congress again within 2 terms until they suffered something worse than they did during congress rules. Sometimes people's thinking baffles me. Rahul Gandhi did everything possible to persuade even the most novice of voters to NOT vote for the congress and yet we have this result?
Poor people and lower middle class vote on who gave them the liquor, money and caste.
middle class vote on emotions (hindutva, beef, etc)
upper middle class vote on GST, note ban, etc
rich do not vote and just bribe whoever is in power.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chinmayanand » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:19 pm

abhik wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:08 pm
Folks should stop blaming the people. Our ideal politician should follow the principal's of sama, dana, danda and bheda. In a democracy that means explaining one's policies to those who will listen, bribing the ones who are willing to be bought, ripping open chasms when advantageous and hounding the implacable ones. Stop bitching about "entitled" middle class, "lazy" villagers and short sighted hindutva people - Do you want their votes or not? If yes, are you going to do what it takes to get their votes or not?
Best post so far. Do whatever it takes to keep Hindutva in power.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:26 pm

Lots of good ideas on the economic front, but one thing BJP should do is take their gloves off in countering Pappu propagandists like Coupta, UndY, and a host of media virulently hostile to them. I have been watching DDM from day one when ModiJi took power, the anti-BJP propaganda has been relentless. So even at the expense of being crude, they have to hit back.

Just take the above example. Imagine if BJP had promised free economic goodies, don't you think that low-IQ priks like Vikram Chandra or Sreenivasan Jain would have pulled that out of their back ends and attacked BJP for irresponsible policies? And they would have had BJP hating "Harvard economists" like Kaushik Basu and Amartya sen backing up. But complete silence now that Congoons have managed to pull the rug from under BJP's feet through such freebies.

So in my mind at least, I have a convincing explanation on how Pappu's slaves managed to "win". I think those economic goodies messages were delivered door to door in rural MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgarh. And I won't be surprised if US/UK deep states provided the cryptic means of doing so. Once such messages were stuck, real schemes for the long-term good would have got buried under the sand. And believe me, no Hinduthva message could have titled the scales in favor of BJP in the face of such freebies.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by RajaRaja » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:40 pm

shravanp wrote:Bigger question is, what did MP/CG voters see in Congress to vote for it? Is Rahul Baba's stupidity finally appealing to masses?
Good question, this was more a vote against BJP than pro Congress. This trend has been going on for sometime (BJP losing Karnataka and 17 out of last 19 by polls) will continue till 2019 polls. In Chhattisgarh resentment against BJP was much higher but poor and biased reporting camouflaged that. Even among the exit polls, only India today axis poll was able to capture that.
Last edited by RajaRaja on Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by RajaRaja » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:47 pm

Chandragupta wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:04 am
To be fair to them, a lot of people supported DeMo because they thought eventually, there will be respite. But none came. Jaitley made a mockery of tax payers. Modi is doing what Vajpayee did - handing over overflowing GoI coffers to Congis to loot for 10 years. They should have crashed tax rates earlier this year, reduced interest rates but nothing came.
What overflowing GoI coffers are we talking here? if the coffers were really overflowing, the govt. would not need to pressurize RBI to part with RS 3.6 lakh crore. T

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:14 pm

Talk to Babulal Marandi in JH to get an alliance.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:37 pm

There is such a narrow margin of loss in RJ and MP for the BJP that one wonders what if?

If you go to the EC site, the NOTA numbers are very significant.

RJ first:
INC votes: 1,393,5201 (39.3%)
BJP votes: 1,375,7502 (38.8%)
----------------
Difference: 177,699 in favor of INC

NOTA votes: 467,781 (1.3%)


MP Votes:

INC votes: 1,559,5153 (40.9%)
BJP votes: 1,564,2980 (41%)
-----------------

Difference: 47,827 in favor of BJP

NOTA votes: 542,295 (1.4%)

Thus, even if BJP had got half the NOTA votes, it could have made a significant difference. Also, despite winning the majority of the votes in the state, they lost MP.

This does indicate that while there is cause for concern, it is by no means a clean-sweep by the INC

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:41 pm

These are disgruntled voters who chose NOTA rather than vote Congress. With the right kind of messaging, persuasion and carrots they can be made to vote in 2019.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by darshhan » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:56 pm

Supratik wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:14 pm
Talk to Babulal Marandi in JH to get an alliance.

very important. Otherwise Jharkhand is heading towards CG type situation of congi led sweep. Even JMM is not that bad. Anti incumbency very high in Jharkhand.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:06 pm

Guys, sorry for my ignorance, but what does NOTA stand for?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by darshhan » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:15 pm

3 Important reasons for BJP defeat in MP and Rajasthan

1. Rural distress leading Farmer dissatisfaction. As I said earlier this is actually because of success of earlier agricultural reforms leading to enhanced productivity. Namo needs to be more imaginative here.

2. Unemployment among youth. The education levels or rather degree levels of the youth have increased leading to increased aspiration levels among them and there are not enough jobs which fulfill those aspirations or justify their investments in their "degrees". On the other hand lot of jobs are not finding many takers. For example you will find the number of engineers and MBAs much more than actual requirements while you will struggle to find a capable Barbender or welder. This situation can partly be rectified by ensuring the dignity of labour. However this is a long term solution. Mindsets will not change so easy.

3. Upper caste alienation. Especially in the wake of SC/ST act controversy. This is very dangerous. These are also the maximum number of NOTA voters. The fact is that Indian elections are based on caste arithmetic. How it works is every party has a pillar caste to which the other supporting castes latch along making it a winning combination. Now if the pillar itself gives away, its basically game over. This is exactly what happened to Congress in UP and Bihar. BJP will have to do some serious soul searching on this as upper caste/General category is their pillar. If they do not rectify this situation urgently, other OBC communities will also start withdrawing from the party as nobody wants to end up on the losing side.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by darshhan » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:15 pm

crams wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:06 pm
Guys, sorry for my ignorance, but what does NOTA stand for?
none of the above. Basically the implication is that it is a wasted vote and in terms of impact it is the same as staying in your home on the voting day and not not going to vote.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by srikumar » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:22 pm

crams wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:06 pm
Guys, sorry for my ignorance, but what does NOTA stand for?
it means that some voter took the trouble to go to a polling station; stand in the polling line for hours (if needed) in hot sun or rain or cold, and then tick the NOTA 'none of the above' box and went home.

These are not voters who stayed at home to watch TV or surf YouTube. These are voters who were motivated enough to act on polling day.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:43 pm

Looks like NOTA was introduced in 2014 in RS and 2015 in LS. They should remove this option. Those who want to exercise NOTA, can still abstain from voting.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:01 pm

Read on twitter NOTA votes in MP in 2013 were more than NOTA votes in 2018.
BJP's vote share this year 40%, 2013 43%.

I think upper castes should trust SC/ST to not misuse the act by and large.
There may be some who misuse it, but there are UCs who still abuse their privileges. On balance, I think atrocities against SC/ST outweigh any misuse of the act. Without the act, I am pretty sure SC/ST will be discriminated more. BJP did not introduce the SC/ST act. It merely maintained the status quo.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:16 pm

DarshanJi, all good points, but I can't believe people will be so stupid to vote for a party and clown of a leader that has been so dis-credited.

Based on all the analysis here so far, my best case guesstimate is that Congoons disseminated those freebie goodies messages across large rural/uneducated swathes of the heartland including pissful. Something like that also has a chain effect in that people convey this to one another even of they themselves did not get the message.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:18 pm

The curse of 4,337 on Shivraj Singh Chouhan
If only 4,337 extra voters had voted for the BJP, the party would have won seven more seats.
https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/sto ... 2018-12-12

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by RajaRaja » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:53 pm

Primus wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:37 pm
There is such a narrow margin of loss in RJ and MP for the BJP that one wonders what if?

If you go to the EC site, the NOTA numbers are very significant.

RJ first:
INC votes: 1,393,5201 (39.3%)
BJP votes: 1,375,7502 (38.8%)
----------------
Difference: 177,699 in favor of INC

NOTA votes: 467,781 (1.3%)


MP Votes:

INC votes: 1,559,5153 (40.9%)
BJP votes: 1,564,2980 (41%)
-----------------

Difference: 47,827 in favor of BJP

NOTA votes: 542,295 (1.4%)

Thus, even if BJP had got half the NOTA votes, it could have made a significant difference. Also, despite winning the majority of the votes in the state, they lost MP.

This does indicate that while there is cause for concern, it is by no means a clean-sweep by the INC

To get the right perspective, you have to compare the data with the 2013 results. So while voting percentages are really close in MP and Rajasthan, BJP did drop significant percent of votes and seats.
In MP it dropped about 4% votes, in Rajasthan 6%, and in Chhattisgarh 12%.
In MP it dropped 56 seats, in Rajasthan 90, and in Chhattisgarh 34. These are huge numbers.
IN term of percentages, these are big swings and translates into millions of people who had voted for BJP in 2013 have now switched over to Congress.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:33 am

To begin with, people should stop thinking they can get away without the core. People will vote nota or INC, and your ridicule will not help. BJP should curb it's arrogance..

Remember, this is the same "wise electorate" that voted BJP in 2014.. as well as 2004 and 2009.

Personally if you ask me, the electorate is stupid, but BJP needs them more than they need BJP (remember they have lived for 70 years under Inc so they can live that way too) so they need to do what all parties do, beg and bribe for votes
Last edited by JohnTitor on Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:39 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Hari Seldon » Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:36 am

abhik wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:08 pm
Folks should stop blaming the people. Our ideal politician should follow the principal's of sama, dana, danda and bheda. In a democracy that means explaining one's policies to those who will listen, bribing the ones who are willing to be bought, ripping open chasms when advantageous and hounding the implacable ones. Stop bitching about "entitled" middle class, "lazy" villagers and short sighted hindutva people - Do you want their votes or not? If yes, are you going to do what it takes to get their votes or not?
+108 saaru. #PraNaams from moi side for articulating this well.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:19 am

^

IOW, do what the Congress has been doing all these years.

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