The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by rahulraj » Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:22 am

political film is Aandhi,satyagrha,sarkar raj,nayak,gulal,rajneeti,yuva,gulaal etc hindi movies

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by rhytha » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:44 pm

Vikas wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:31 am
Any ground level reports from TN ? If 2 leaves party does well, it would be good for the overall political health of the state.

I was in Chennai last week and there is hardly any election related activity. No posters, no nukkad sabha, no autos blaring political messages..
We are seeing elections without MuKa or MGR or JJ for the first time in recent memory.
I believe we are seeing churning in Indian political ocean in 2019 and by 2024, many a thing would have changed including aging leaders, one man parties and role of emotive issues.
DMK+ - 20-25
AIADMK+ - 10-15

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:50 pm

In the 7 southern states (including MH and GA) the NDA prospects have gone up dramatically. We are looking at 70+ seats for NDA and 40+ for BJP.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:53 pm

https://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=219

Excerpt:
Our teams have travelled across the state and we have counter checked all our findings at least three times to come to this surprising conclusion of BJP and TMC being equal in terms of voter support at this point of time. This is an incredible feat by any standards, for BJP’s leadership itself has been targeting about 25-28% vote-share in the state for the last three years since the debacle of 2016, but our research is showing that the saffron party has surpassed its own target here.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Kumar » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:31 pm

http://www.elections.in/exit-poll.html

Popular psephologist and political analyzer Mr. Chintamani along with 5Dots carried out an intensive opinion poll for our portal. The poll suggests that the Bhartiya Janta Party is set to lose nothing whereas the Congress would gain marginally. In 2014, the BJP became the first party to get a clear majority on its own after a period of 30 years. The BJP got 282 seats in the previous elections. According to the survey, the BJP is set to gain 271 seats just one short of the clear majority. The NDA is expected to get 335 seats whereas UPA will not be able to cross the 100-mark again.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:49 pm

Guys, isn't it the case that this Bollywood baby and now Pappu slave, Urmila Matondkar married to some Kashmiri Muslim? Where does this guy stand on the separatist scale? BTW, for me, any KM who rants and rails against Indian govt, Indian security forces, and this takes the cake, against "communalism", but is either ever so silent or praiseworthy of Pakis is to me a separatist.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Kumar » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:50 pm

this pollster has traveled 21 states

https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi/status ... 8801866752
BJP - 246-258
NDA - 298-310

INC - 71-81
UPA - 120-126

OTH - 113-119

https://twitter.com/savvyasaachi/status ... 8180357120

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Suraj » Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:20 pm

Did my part to 5forty3's effort with a contribution. May add more.

In my own view, it is important to build entities like him. The reason is simply that long term political entrenchment occurs with the development of its own system - including a poll barometer organization capable of performing ground level outreach to gauge, analyze and report sentiment. He won't always be accurate, and technically such accuracy is impossible. However, he serves a purpose as part of the center-right ecosystem and must be supported and built up.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:02 pm

I am a little worried about the ground-level campaign going on by Congoon Pappu slaves on his bogus NYAY scheme. Reason being that anyone, more so dirt poor Indians living in slums and villages, will be lured with the promise of free money. So if Pappu & Co do a good enough job spreading their promise, could it not catch on like wild fire?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Kumar » Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:26 pm

he answers some of this here
https://youtu.be/Z7X8x2Vxfpk
crams wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:02 pm
I am a little worried about the ground-level campaign going on by Congoon Pappu slaves on his bogus NYAY scheme. Reason being that anyone, more so dirt poor Indians living in slums and villages, will be lured with the promise of free money. So if Pappu & Co do a good enough job spreading their promise, could it not catch on like wild fire?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:39 pm

Triank wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:50 pm
chetak wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:52 pm
Image
gaaru, what img-hosting service do you use to share pics in this way on the forum?
Primus wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:48 am
On a related note, has anybody seen the movie on Modi, I expect it to also have an impact. Waiting for it in our area.
havent watched the movie yet (dont know if it has even been released as of now), but am expecting it to have a decent to good impact. vivek keeps saying its an inspirational movie based on an inspirational story, and by the looks of the trailer, it seems to have been made well (the maker has 'Sarbjit' & 'mary kom' titles under him)....contrast that with 'my name is raga', a movie/parody that's also set to release shortly, albeit the catch is, its trailer released on april 1st. :rotfl:
no img-hosting service, saar.

just post the direct link to the image itself

@Primus ji

Movie will be released in 2 or 3 days time.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Kumar » Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:50 pm

Image

elections.in is the most optimistic for NDA. Timesnow is giving 25-30 seats more for UPA and indiatv-cnx is giving to others. Rest are around the same ballpark.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:50 pm

The only unknown is the voting percentages. I hope people come out and vote. RoPers and RoLers are all for sure coming out to vote.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:02 pm

^^Like I said earlier, the polls cannot predict vote shares with an accuracy better than 2-3%.

As a result, for the many seats where the contest is close (or multicornered, ESPECIALLY in states like UP), the predictions are not statistically significant.

The main usefulness of the polls, as I have been mentioning over the last 2 months, is to ascertain the overall mood of the electorate. Clearly, unless something goes very very wrong during polling, it is going to be a definite NDA victory.

As far as the question of whether BJP will get majority on its own, I don't think the polls give enough information since the answer strongly depends on how many "close-contest" seats the party can win by last-minute campaigning and maximizing turnout. The victory margins in such seats are within the error margins of the polls.

Since these polls never give any information on the vote shares margins by constituency, the only indicator we can use is to compare the 2014 predictions versus 2019, assuming the overall quality of the polls is similar. By that indicator, BJP should be performing more strongly in 2019 than in 2014 since the polls five years ago predicted only around 200-230 seats for BJP and 250-270 for NDA.

The above issues are an important reason why we should support (rather than ridicule) folks like 5forty3. They can predict/track vote shares at individual constituency level as they evolve on almost daily basis, and even during the election.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Kumar » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:10 pm

CSDS Lokniti survey indicates, those who indicated voting NDA 74% are sure to vote compared to 61% of UPA and 63% of regional party voters

https://twitter.com/sanjaycsds/status/1 ... 0518323201
shravanp wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:50 pm
The only unknown is the voting percentages. I hope people come out and vote. RoPers and RoLers are all for sure coming out to vote.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Kumar » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:18 pm

Out of the 167 marginal seats, the NDA was in the lead on 57 and the opposition dominated the remaining 110. The opposition tend to lose more because for every single NDA seat in the red zone, the opposition has two.

The NDA stands to gain from even a marginal swing which can result in a disproportionate increase in the number of seats. The reverse holds true for the opposition as even a marginal swing in its favour might not lead to substantial increase in their seat tally.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi is able to generate a swing in the last days of the campaign like seen in the various elections leading up to 2019, it may prove catastrophic for the opposition as the NDA can reclaim at least 102 seats where it was runner-up last time.

The marginal seat dynamics will be at play in Uttar Pradesh where 30 seats are in this zone making it tough to predict if it will be advantage Mahagathbandhan. But it can work in favour of either of the combinations, leaving the field vast open.

In the final six weeks of campaign, a -3 (minus 3) per cent swing away from the BJP will mean loss of 57 seats but +3 (plus 3) per cent swing will mean gain of 102. Going by the last elections, Prime Minister Modi's aggressive campaigning in the last few days can impact the BJP vote share by two to five per cent.

Even a one per cent swing towards the NDA will take its tally beyond 300 and three per cent swing away from it will lead to its tally coming down to 210. If there is no swing, the NDA will end up with 267 with the UPA getting 142 and others 134

https://english.madhyamam.com/en/nation ... l-tracker-
KL Dubey wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:02 pm
^^Like I said earlier, the polls cannot predict vote shares with an accuracy better than 2-3%.

As a result, for the many seats where the contest is close (or multicornered, ESPECIALLY in states like UP), the predictions are not statistically significant.

The main usefulness of the polls, as I have been mentioning over the last 2 months, is to ascertain the overall mood of the electorate. Clearly, unless something goes very very wrong during polling, it is going to be a definite NDA victory.

As far as the question of whether BJP will get majority on its own, I don't think the polls give enough information since the answer strongly depends on how many "close-contest" seats the party can win by last-minute campaigning and maximizing turnout. The victory margins in such seats are within the error margins of the polls.

Since these polls never give any information on the vote shares margins by constituency, the only indicator we can use is to compare the 2014 predictions versus 2019, assuming the overall quality of the polls is similar. By that indicator, BJP should be performing more strongly in 2019 than in 2014 since the polls five years ago predicted only around 200-230 seats for BJP and 250-270 for NDA.

The above issues are an important reason why we should support (rather than ridicule) folks like 5forty3. They can predict/track vote shares at individual constituency level as they evolve on almost daily basis, and even during the election.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:47 am

Really so much weird stuff happening these days.

1. Seems Telengana police intercepted a BJP withdrawal of Rs. 8 crores in a bank and transferred the money to the IT dept. IF story is true, does state police have authority to do this? The seizure was in a bank. That means money is NOT black. What was the reason for the seizure?

2. Since the weekend, DMK in TN has been going to town with "We are not anti-Hindu" campaign. Their Congi counterparts have amped up the "Not all Hindus side with BJP. Decent ones stay with Congress." campaign. Is the ground shifting?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:50 am

Is it me or Modi Ji really sounds more aggressive and assertive this time around.

I am now working on contrary scenario where NDA ends up around 235-250 seats and no support from other players outside NDA. Who in that case would be the PM face because Sonia/Priyanka may not allow RG to head a minority govt while other contenders for PMship would always be wary of congress pulling the rug in few months time. Of course a few months of loot can still fill the coffers for next few election cycles.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:42 am

SSundar wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:47 am
Really so much weird stuff happening these days.

1. Seems Telengana police intercepted a BJP withdrawal of Rs. 8 crores in a bank and transferred the money to the IT dept. IF story is true, does state police have authority to do this? The seizure was in a bank. That means money is NOT black. What was the reason for the seizure?

2. Since the weekend, DMK in TN has been going to town with "We are not anti-Hindu" campaign. Their Congi counterparts have amped up the "Not all Hindus side with BJP. Decent ones stay with Congress." campaign. Is the ground shifting?
Anyway, it was stupid of BJP to withdraw so much cash in one go. Should have planned better.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by RajaRaja » Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:41 am

Vikas wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:50 am
Is it me or Modi Ji really sounds more aggressive and assertive this time around.

I am now working on contrary scenario where NDA ends up around 235-250 seats and no support from other players outside NDA. Who in that case would be the PM face because Sonia/Priyanka may not allow RG to head a minority govt while other contenders for PMship would always be wary of congress pulling the rug in few months time. Of course a few months of loot can still fill the coffers for next few election cycles.
If NDA finishes in the range you are suggesting or say above 225, lots of new choices will pop up, YSRCP, TRS, BJD, even BSP, NCP etc.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by OmkarC » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:29 am

Haldiram wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:41 am
Vikas wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:50 am
Is it me or Modi Ji really sounds more aggressive and assertive this time around.

I am now working on contrary scenario where NDA ends up around 235-250 seats and no support from other players outside NDA. Who in that case would be the PM face because Sonia/Priyanka may not allow RG to head a minority govt while other contenders for PMship would always be wary of congress pulling the rug in few months time. Of course a few months of loot can still fill the coffers for next few election cycles.
If NDA finishes in the range you are suggesting or say above 225, lots of new choices will pop up, YSRCP, TRS, BJD, even BSP, NCP etc.
Anyone but TRS.. BJP has a seriously good shot at being the main opposition party in TG if congress disintegrates (which is highly likely if it loses again).

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:57 am

SC rejects preliminary objections by govt; to examine Rafale review pleas using published documents
What would be the impact of this? The court is yet to fix a date for hearing.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:35 pm

SC verdict rejecting govt's claim that Naxal Ram used stolen docs is a shot in the arm for Pappu. Note this Rafale BS that Pappu has been peddling is to sow seeds of confusion and doubt. So anything that can be perceived as going against ModiJi will be spun as 'see I told you so'. Already Pappu and his his gang have started the 'chowkidar chor hai' chorus citing latest SC decision. Thats all the matters. Fact that it changes nothing in terms of proving any of Pappu's bogus allegations doesn't matter. Its a propaganda 'victory' for Pappu no doubt.

Then we have the EC guys put a hold on release of ModiJi bopic. All in all, enough propaganda material for Pappu to stall ModiJi's momentum a bit.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:59 pm

I very much doubt if this would affect Modi's popularity at this point. If at all, Congress will be sh!tting n its own yard, with whatever votes it was supposed to get, if it goes around town screaming 'Rafale Rafale Rafale'.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:13 pm

Interesting reversal of roles. Taliban Khan aparently puked something about ModiJi being better to cut a deal on Kashmir than Pappu & Co. Which Congoons seized as Pakis endorsing ModiJi. Ideally, I would ignore Talibna Khan with the contempt he deserves. But in this case, maybe ModiJi should just say Kashmir is an integral part of India whether its Congoons or BJP in power.

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