Bharat Ganrajya

BJP now in lead in MP 114-107

Sachin wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:34 am

a_bharat wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:31 am

If the circumstances don't change significantly for the 2019 LS poll how many LS seats is BJP likely to lose (the ones that it won in 2014)? My guess: 35 (MP, CG, RJ), 35 (UP, BH), 10 GJ, 5 KA. Where can it significantly improve its tally? can't think of any. Not much scope for improvement in MH as they already have 41 out of 48 (with SS). In fact, they may lose some there too.

We need to see who would win the seats in which BJP loses. Will INC get all these seats (which makes them the single largest party to claim forming government) or will they all get gobbled by small time parties, who will then form a khichdi government. I think GoI asking for more funds from RBI is also an indication that BJP has realised that the "market & economy conditions" are now not doing good for traders (who are also a vote bank of the BJP).

Unemployment seems to be an issue. R Jagannathan even brought out a book on it. In Rajasthan unemployment was the biggest issue voters decided their vote on.

I am not worried about the state results with 15 years of anti incumbency but about economy and unemployment. I don't know what can be done in 5 months to correct the situation.

Today's battle has not gone well for us in the heartland.

However, this will have very little bearing on LS 2019. The fact is that the NaMo factor is what kept these elections a close fight. Considering the narrow margins of loss in MP and RJ, there is no indication that LS 2019 will be anything but a NaMo referendum and a total sweep in North and West India.

CG is a different story. Something has gone very wrong in the calculations. Need to see post-mortem analysis in a day or two.

It is important to take a defeat in stride and keep going. The reasons for loss today are nothing to do with "not enough Hindutva" or other "GST/demonetization" stuff. If that was the case, NaMo campaign could not have made any difference - but it has made a huge positive difference in keeping "anti-incumbency" at bay.

At the end of the day, in MP and CG, it may be that "fatigue" (or "anti-incumbency") just may have caught up with the party in the states.

Remember it is Kaliyuga...sometimes the evildoers win battles, but we must keep the bigger picture squarely in sight.

PS: the trends in MP and RJ are still unclear. Things can change dramatically in the next hour or so.

BJP is currently leading in MP. Some miracle is due.

^^It is not a miracle. There are still more than 10 rounds of voting to go in most constituencies, with very thin margins in many seats. The multicornered contests with BSP and SP prolong the final results even more.

BJP has to at least get a simple majority in MP or very close to it. Congress can always count on BSP. Others too will most likely go with Congress unless they are independents.

According to Zee News:

BJP has crossed majority in MP!

The gap between BJP and INC has reduced dramatically in RJ. Congis are now well below 100 and cannot form goremint on their own.

Let us see....need ta wait, dawgz.

On the good news side:

NDA is headed back to power in MZ, INC routed (< 10 seats as of now). NE is Congi-mukt as of today, assuming the current trends hold.

The "unnatural couple" Pappu and Chandranna roundly thrashed in TG. Again the result is much above expectations for TRS. So KCR has kept these fellows out of his state.

I am surprised that TRS winning with such a huge majority in TG. But very happy about it. People completely rejected TDP. Perhaps they voted for TRS with a vengeance against congress for tying up with TDP.

BJP's poor performance is disappointing. Wonder if they made sure TRS wins by transferring their votes. If they did, they did a rather fine job.

MP, Rajasthan and CG should have gone to vote earlier in the year, perhaps along with Karnataka. If BJP lost the states, at least anti incumbency would have helped BJP In the center for 2019. 5 months is too short a time for anti incumbency to set in.

The devastating loss of RS seats will completely undermine BJP's parliamentary fortunes... exacerbating a long-standing shortfall that Amit Shah and Modi have been making back-breaking efforts to overcome, one state at a time, since 2014.

Given these results I would say the chances of an NDA majority (forget BJP) are 50-50, at best, in 2019. For some reason INC continues to be a massive force to reckon with on the Indian political landscape.

KL Dubey wrote:BJP has crossed majority in MP!
The gap between BJP and INC has reduced dramatically in RJ. Congis are now well below 100 and cannot form goremint on their own.

In MP, Congress has over taken the BJP now (117 v/s 102). And in all places there are other "secular" parties like BSP who can support the congress.

NDA is headed back to power in MZ, INC routed (< 10 seats as of now). NE is Congi-mukt as of today, assuming the current trends hold.

Need to assess what benefits does it bring to India and BJP in the long run. NE states does have strong EJ influence, so don't know if that can be reduced now.

hanumadu wrote:I am surprised that TRS winning with such a huge majority in TG. But very happy about it. People completely rejected TDP. Perhaps they voted for TRS with a vengeance against congress for tying up with TDP.

TRS I guess was 100% sure from day one that they would form the government all by themselves. They also had out right rejected BJP's offer of support. Perhaps they jolly well knew that they don't require BJP (leading in two seats) support. Chattisgarh seems to be a rude shock for BJP.

Cong back in lead in MP 115-104

I am amazed with how smart the general so called 'core' 'awakened' hindus are.

"Vikas is not needed. Only Mandir and RTE and free up temples. All things will be fixed over night."

Vikaas == Core Agenda

Money is the main power behind the rise of Xianity or Islam. If hindus really want to survive in this world, they better prosper financially first. No Mandir or RTE. They don't fetch any food on to your dining table. Definitely won't help your children to have better future.

No matter how many vedas you learnt, if you fail to earn money by the end of the day, you will be screwed.

^^+1008.

No matter how many times you say it, some of the entitled "core voter" types will never get it. What they will do (by habit/compulsion/some other frustration issue) is to use every tactical defeat/setback to continue their grumbling and demands for "action". They will do absolutely nothing to support the long-term cause....they will never actually become affiliated with any Sangh parivar organization....

Mandir, RTE, temple decontrol will all occur one after the other. But not necessarily on someone's personal desire.

Well I guess people who think Fighters can be built in a day without infrastratucture or experience or becoming a MD doctor does not require 12 years school+5.5 years MBBS plus work ex will expect everything to be delivered

The C-system controls the bureaucracy through National and International Networks, they want a full on charge to decimate any political representation for Hindus forever. If INC cobels together a Govt in 2019, they will repeat it again 2024. It will some dangerous consequences.

That way the so called minorities are much more united, they are much more reliable for votes, hence almost all parties favor them rather than once in the blue moon Hindu vote.

I cant understand why we lost these states? I thought MP, CG were in the bag. No real leadership challenge by the Congis + strong BJP local leadership. What went wrong? I am guessing Congis beat BJP in social engineering, their good old divide & rule method. I don't think the 'core awakened' Hindus/NOTA idiots played a part in this.

Still, losing these states is not the end. People may have needed a change at local level after 15+ years. But it will be a massive low in the RS.

On a side note, going further Congis will get bold further and ask for majority share in any talks of coalition for 2019. How will regional parties react to it needs to be seen.

I am extremely happy with the tightest slap by Telangana public to backstabber Babu.. from what reports are coming, Congress actually had a decent chance till they got greedy and aligned with CBN & the commies.. he apparently took them down with him to a massive defeat.

BJP has to go back to its core voters and not try to think like a scamgress. The core voter is
unhappy.

Pretty disappointing, but we trudge on

I thought Ayushmaan bharat would help. But it fell flat. The premise was that Modi has won over rural poor with his schemes for gas, toilets, pakka ghar, cutting of middleman in agri, health insurance. But it did not show here. Do Indian people even want development? I am no longer sure.

Chandragupta wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:32 am

I thought Ayushmaan bharat would help. But it fell flat. The premise was that Modi has won over rural poor with his schemes for gas, toilets, pakka ghar, cutting of middleman in agri, health insurance. But it did not show here. Do Indian people even want development? I am no longer sure.

Because people know they won't stop gaining the benefits offered by a great central government, by choosing another party at the state level. No state has ever been punished for being run by a non-NDA party. They'll just need to find out whether losing the economically focused BJP governments they had will significantly impact them in other ways.

This is a good opportunity for GoI to push through very sensitive Hindu focused bills through Parliament and dare a newly motivated opposition to oppose it.

BTW, the CG election is at a very early stage. Same thing happened in 2013. The BJP tally is rapidly increasing now.