Bharat Ganrajya

Indrad wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:24 am

MP Con 115 BJP 105

Samajvadi Party is also leading in 2 seats. Is it alliance partner of Congress?

A mojar boost to C system and UPA 3 is now a distinct possibility. Let's see what the consequences are

gaining control of resource rich areas like MP, Raj, CG is a big boost to war chest. railways, OFBs, roads, forests, mines, tourism, logistics (nagpur is a prime hub) ... lots of people can be squeezed for money now.

for a few years now they were reliant on sipping blood from bengaluru only.

The BIF have gained momentum for 2019 now. Rajasthan had a problem with Vasundhararaje, but MP and Chattisgarh is really a loss. I attribute it to demonetisation, increase in real taxes with GST, unemployment, and to some extent anti-incumbency. If BJP can’t win the Hindi heartland, then 2019 looks bad.

This is a very serious setback. I am specially surprised by CG. My take is that GST and demo has not gone down well with that section of BJP voters who never paid taxes or had legit business. We have seen some example of that on BRF/BGR. My take would be to stop talking about these and go back to core issues. Also Modi thought his schemes will put the poor section towards him who regularly vote for Cong but that has not happened. The last thing you want to do in this situation is to loose core voters. Bring in RJB ordinance or bill and let them oppose it. Remove Art 35A by presidential order. Rename as many places as you can. That is go back to core issues. Otherwise it will be 10-15 years of Cong rule as economy is bouncing back.

Vikas wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:17 am

Now onus is on Congress to show that they can deliver on all their promises of "We will do this and that in 10 days".
At least now we have clear challenger to NM in 2019.
Am already feeling sorry for Mamta, Mayawati, Mulayam,Pawar, AK as their chances of becoming PM as gone down the drain.
Well played BJP!!

You don't get it, do you?

People won't ask them those questions because they will all be paid not to. Take KA for instance, after this government was elected, they bailed out the farmers at someone else's expense. Promise fulfilled, at poor salaried man's cost. Farmers won't be voting BJP anytime soon in KA, this after they enjoyed all the benefits BJP gave them.

Voters will be bribed come election time.. and people will vote their caste. None of the people you mentioned need to become need to become PM for them to win, only Modi needs to lose for them to win.

Yes, it is a serious setback, but perhaps it could also be a wake-up call. Not enough time for 2019 elections, but some sort of adjustment needs to be made. Clearly Vikas or the economy does not work that much in India as it does in the West. People forget who brought them gas, electricity, toilets and a better life. They vote on caste lines and I am sure can still be bribed. There is really no ideological motivation barring dedicated party workers.

Of course it could also be that when people vote for LS, they are voting for Modi vs the rest, locally things and issues may be different, e.g. Vasundhara Raje problem. However, CG was a bad shock. Having said that the NE is almost completely Cong-free.

I don't know that raising pro-Hindu issues will help, the common man is much more focused on caste - which has always been the bane of Indian elections. BJP will have to pick its candidates carefully and may not have too much of a choice in weeding out undesirables. It seems like people don't care too much about corruption at the grass-root level, since they all indulge in it, including traders who never want to pay tax.

One can only hope that the BJP leadership has been shaken up enough to change tactics. Mallya and Michel are good optics and may work with urban voters, but hardly affect the thinking of the rural poor.

Also have a look at the no. of nota votes especially in M.P. I can assure you almost 90% of Nota votes belonged to BJP voters.

reading that in urban areas of MP BJP didn;t do well while relatively better performance in rural...this is another googly..

in MP contest has been very close on many seats as we speak As per EC website, K K Sing of Congress is leading by 1 vote against Rajendra Pandey of BJP in Jaora assembly seat of Madhya Pradesh

What a forgettable day was today for us Dharmics Losing CG, RJ and may be MP was disappointing How could so many vote for Cong(I)s?
BTW, MP is quite down to the wire BJP: 112 (51+61), Cong(I): 108 (45+63) I thought Mamaji will romp home comfortably

take away (biggest) is vikas doesn't get you votes.

Indrad wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:45 pm

take away (biggest) is vikas doesn't get you votes.

And that is so sad a commentary on the state of the voter in India. Anywhere else, 'it is the economy, stupid'.

I am not sure stoking the fires of Hindu nationalism would have the desired effect either. RJB maybe a strong factor in the Hindi heartland, but don't know that the BJP can do anything about it. Bringing in an ordnance may end up being a self-goal if it gets defeated. The Sabarimala issue was a non-starter for the BJP and I wonder if at the end, the Congis got more out of it.

Primus wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:02 pm

Indrad wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:45 pm

take away (biggest) is vikas doesn't get you votes.

And that is so sad a commentary on the state of the voter in India. Anywhere else, 'it is the economy, stupid'.

Anyone with half a brain on the ground could tell you that. I've been shouting it forever.

The main reason behind this is that the British, then Congress have divided the the country on various grounds that, there isn't a day where the average person doesn't talk about caste/religion in one of the many conversations they have. The only place these are likely to be missing are the cocktail parties that elite go to.

When you have such a divided country, development doesn't have as big an impact as many think. All it took in KA was to rake up lingayat as a religion for the voter to forget how corrupt JDS and INC are. The idiots voted them back in and now we have corruption ruling the state for another 5 years.

Issues common to all Hindus will help get votes and over time (decades) heal the rift among them. Again, demonitisation and GST were definitely needed, but the salaried class got nothing for it. Bruce Lee didn't reduce taxes, instead he insulted them by giving a pitiful 12.5k a year extra tax free. That was the conversation many many people in jobs said.. on BGF though, it was all about "doing the right thing" .. while it is important, India isn't mature enough to understand that. He should have radically altered the slabs last year.. now it's too late to do anything. Noone is willing to be patient and wait 2-3 election cycles to see the benefits. Everyone wants to get the benefits now. So BJP has to placate them.

BJP has little talent when it comes to PR... I would say that INC didn't win these elections, rather BJP lost them. They are, after all, famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Mort Walker wrote:The BIF have gained momentum for 2019 now. Rajasthan had a problem with Vasundhararaje, but MP and Chattisgarh is really a loss. I attribute it to demonetisation, increase in real taxes with GST, unemployment, and to some extent anti-incumbency.

Supratik wrote:Also Modi thought his schemes will put the poor section towards him who regularly vote for Cong but that has not happened. The last thing you want to do in this situation is to loose core voters.

To be frank BJP also is relying too much on one person - Modi. Unless this changes, it would be easy for "seculars" to win against BJP. Some how get Modi isolated or make him irrelevant (or people lose faith on him); that means the BJP is finished. Over confidence may also have led to this drubbing, especially in MP and CG. I had met an RSS-wallah just last Friday and he keeps an eye on politics (especially AP and TS); and he was sure that CG was in BJP's kitty any way. I am surprised that the BJP leadership of CG not even able to identify even some of the undercurrents in the state. Even the state's SB CID will give some indications, although it may not be very accurate.

Primus wrote:I don't know that raising pro-Hindu issues will help, the common man is much more focused on caste - which has always been the bane of Indian elections.

We must understand that Congress also has used the soft-Hindutwa card in all the three states. And BJP was unable to expose the gimmick of soft-Hindutwa. The Congress are champions in playing with caste equations and now in the last four years they would have refined the strategy.

The Sabarimala issue was a non-starter for the BJP and I wonder if at the end, the Congis got more out of it.

In Sabari Mala at least for now, RSS has gained people's confidence. But the BJP again has not been able to make any political mileage out of the issue. And the RSS stance has been actually more pro-devotee rather than playing political games. And in Sabari Mala case neither the Kerala BJP, nor their "God" the BJP at Centre was able to do any wonders. The way BJP leaders (including a central minister) was literally "shown their places" clearly proved that in Sabari Mala that the party can do diddly squat.

Primus wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:02 pm

Indrad wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:45 pm

take away (biggest) is vikas doesn't get you votes.

And that is so sad a commentary on the state of the voter in India. Anywhere else, 'it is the economy, stupid'.

I am not sure stoking the fires of Hindu nationalism would have the desired effect either. RJB maybe a strong factor in the Hindi heartland, but don't know that the BJP can do anything about it. Bringing in an ordnance may end up being a self-goal if it gets defeated. The Sabarimala issue was a non-starter for the BJP and I wonder if at the end, the Congis got more out of it.

It could very well be a 'fatigue' issue with BJP's voters, and maybe BJP simply let those states go so that anti-incumbency may help BJP in 2019. Anti incumbency is a huge factor for Cong and not so much for BJP, despite BJP losing in all 3 states.

Its also a wrong assumption that BJP does not know how to play caste politics to its advantage. UP was won using smart caste equations, and so did LS 2014. It could be very well that they didn't put energies into it.

^ Whatever the reasons may be for this debacle (wether it was planned, Amit Shah designed this, etc. - we can continue debating forever on this!), BJP leadership MUST have a plan for 2019, and it needs to be put into action soon, otherwise more despair will creep in... Cong cannot be allowed to win. So depressing to watch the results today

Very disappointing results. I always hoping based on polls, opinions from the ground etc, that MP and Chattisgargh will be BJP's and Rajasthan would be tough. Raman Singh being beaten so badly was a shocker, and MP being so close was also surprising. Both Shivraj Chouhan and Raman Singh are stellar leaders who delivered. Sadly, in such a divided country like India, good performance alone does not earn people's gratitude. There will always be losers and in such large #s that they can tilt the scale. Full marks to Vasundara Raje and BJP leadership for putting up a tough fight in Rajasthan.

But for me the biggest shocker is Congoon revival. The very thought is repulsive. This is a testing time for BJP. I know sore losers will now pile on ModiJi, Amit Shah etc, but that will be counter productive. The battle for 2019 needs to start in earnest now and it must begin by understanding why so many voters abandoned BJP in favor of Pappu and his slaves. Caste? Demo? GST? Farmers?

Lots of pro-BJP pollsters like Pravin Patil etc are also a laughing stock today for having painted such a rosy picture completely at odds with reality (especially MP and Chattisgargh). Hope BJP strategists didn't take such kinds of ground reports seriously but if they did, they need go back to the drawing board.

A huge setback. To put it in perspective of my American friends this is the equivalent of Republicans losing Texas, Oklahaoma and Kansas.

Prepare your kids and grandkids to get ready for circumcision!

For those saying Hindutva brings votes, People voted congress even after they said 'unse baadme lipatlenge'.

For those saying vikas won't fetch votes, it will at least not get you 44 seats. The number one issue that people based their vote in Rajasthan as per opinion polls is unemployment. If this is not a call for vikas, what is?

Vikas based on agriculture has hit a wall. There is only so much you can grow a inherently low productivity activity. Vikas based on industry is hard and takes time to take root or show benefits. Perhaps Shivraj Chouhan must have focused on industry but a lot of it depends on policy at the centre and infrastructure provided by the centre.

BJP has to sit out this round. Now let us see how RG will set up aloo ka facory near potata crops, mirchi ka factor near mirchi fields, cell phone factories in all the states, pant factories, shirt factories, shoe factories and what not.

Let's hope unemployment does not become a more serious problem than it already is by GE 2019 and Modi can create some last minute surprises.

We need to do a post mortem on the results. Certainly 5forty3 analysis is inaccurate. To win in Chattisgarh and MP, the INC had to move from left to center. India’s development has been set back by at least 5 years and most likely 10. Most everyone on this forum will not see a developed India in their lifetime.

hanumadu wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:03 pm

For those saying Hindutva brings votes, People voted congress even after they said 'unse baadme lipatlenge'.

For those saying vikas won't fetch votes, it will at least not get you 44 seats. The number one issue that people based their vote in Rajasthan as per opinion polls is unemployment. If this is not a call for vikas, what is?

Vikas based on agriculture has hit a wall. There is only so much you can grow a inherently low productivity activity. Vikas based on industry is hard and takes time to take root or show benefits. Perhaps Shivraj Chouhan must have focused on industry but a lot of it depends on policy at the centre and infrastructure provided by the centre.

BJP has to sit out this round. Now let us see how RG will set up aloo ka facory near potata crops, mirchi ka factor near mirchi fields, cell phone factories in all the states, pant factories, shirt factories, shoe factories and what not.

Let's hope unemployment does not become a more serious problem than it already is by GE 2019 and Modi can create some last minute surprises.

Agriculture production in MP has boomed and done well in CG, so IMHO that isn’t a factor. We need to see district voting results the states.

JohnTitor wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:13 pm

Anyone with half a brain on the ground could tell you that. I've been shouting it forever.

The main reason behind this is that the British, then Congress have divided the the country on various grounds that, there isn't a day where the average person doesn't talk about caste/religion in one of the many conversations they have. The only place these are likely to be missing are the cocktail parties that elite go to.

When you have such a divided country, development doesn't have as big an impact as many think. All it took in KA was to rake up lingayat as a religion for the voter to forget how corrupt JDS and INC are. The idiots voted them back in and now we have corruption ruling the state for another 5 years.

Issues common to all Hindus will help get votes and over time (decades) heal the rift among them. Again, demonitisation and GST were definitely needed, but the salaried class got nothing for it. Bruce Lee didn't reduce taxes, instead he insulted them by giving a pitiful 12.5k a year extra tax free. That was the conversation many many people in jobs said.. on BGF though, it was all about "doing the right thing" .. while it is important, India isn't mature enough to understand that. He should have radically altered the slabs last year.. now it's too late to do anything. Noone is willing to be patient and wait 2-3 election cycles to see the benefits. Everyone wants to get the benefits now. So BJP has to placate them.

BJP has little talent when it comes to PR... I would say that INC didn't win these elections, rather BJP lost them. They are, after all, famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

^^very well put it Sir. These are my observations as well...middle class getting the feeling of shafted again. Unemployment/job creation will be an issue, even though the lack of it was there well before 2014 and although in the last 2 years, it has picked up, not enough to get the feeling of difference. Many also question the outcome of Demo as well as perception of GST hurting more than helping.

I do hope that BJP hires some PR firm which can turn some of the toxic lexicons (bhakts, cow related terms) in to something positive along with highlighting their achievements (which are many...one of the most shining example is transformation in Railways), manifesto to all cross-sections of the society.

Mort Walker wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:10 pm

Agriculture production in MP has boomed and done well in CG, so IMHO that isn’t a factor. We need to see district voting results the states.

Doesn't matter how much it has boomed, it is not keeping up pace with the rest of the economy. It never will. That is the reality of agriculture every where in the world.