The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[crams]

KLN, the lady with Jignesh Mevani in that picture is the late BJP loathing Gauri Lankesh.

[Trilobite]

Secularism is in our DNA, says Venkaiah Naidu

[Klnmurthy]

KLN, the lady with Jignesh Mevani in that picture is the late BJP loathing Gauri Lankesh.

Thanks

[Deans]

I've been analysing the Guj & HP results and both have trends largely ignored by the media and likely to be repeated in future.

In both states, the BJP increased its vote share and in both that vote share was just under 49%
The Cong lost just 1% of share in HP which was enough for it to lose badly.
Wherever it is a Cong vs. BJP fight, neither side will get lower than 38 % of the vote (the lowest the losing side has got in any state).
That share has to go to 50% to guarantee a big victory (earlier the threshold was around 46%).

In both states, it was the smaller parties who lost out the most. Whoever took more of the vote from the smaller parties won.
Thus I believe states are increasingly moving to a straight fight between 2 parties or coalitions. To the extent that the smaller parties are more
aligned to Cong, Cong gains. AAP which could have been a spoiler for the Cong, had no impact.

In this context the BJP has to be the no 2 party (in the minds of voters) in Orissa and WB and be smarter in alliance formation in states where there are either multiple parties (Bihar, Mah), or where it has no presence (TN).

In Guj, if all core BJP voters had come out to vote (1% increase in overall turnout) or not pressed NOTA, the BJP would have repeated its 2012
performance of 115 seats with a higher vote share than 2012, despite anti-incumbency, DeMo/GST, Floods, Hardik/Jignesh/ etc. BJP workers on the ground did not convert Modiji's appeal to votes, particularly in rural areas, to the extent they did in 2012 & 14.
Allied to this, MOST sitting MLA's in both parties lost. Its probably a combination of poor governance by individual MLA's and high expectations of voters, particularly youth.

[Rajesh_MR]

https://twitter.com/sirjadeja/status/943177273410125825
New gen trio of Guj commenting on Modi, hatred and contempt is overflowing

[Mahakala]

5.5 lakh NOTA in GJ.

Enough to wipe out many a lose margin contest in many a seat.

Now who might these voters be? My guess: The Hindutvawadi voters perhaps, who are putoff by BJP's games (take-'em-for-granted) but can't get themselves to vote for an anti-Hindu Cong.

Am sure the sangh feedback ecosystem will shed light on these folks as well. And hope it sparks internal debate, introspection and course-correction. Onlee.

Tons of patels who were angry with bjp/modi but were asked to not vote for congress and hence stayed back. Thai, american nri patels supposedly called local gujjus and persuaded them to not vote for cong. Even modi in one of his rallies said if yo're angry with me, its ok but dont vote for con, you know what they will do.

[Karthik]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 141906.cms

India and Bangla eye travel without visas
Kolkata: India and Bangladesh are moving towards a visaless regime as practised between France and Germany and many European nations, Bangladesh high commissioner to India Syed Muazzem Ali said on Tuesday at the deputy high commission during the concluding programme of Vijay Diwas.
The septuagenarian diplomat said the two nations were working on a World Bank project to execute smooth movement of Indo-Bangla citizens without passport based on the Indian Aadhaar card numbers and the Bangladesh national registry.
Ali, however, is apprehensive that as the system will take time to be implemented, he might not see it in his lifetime. "It can take up to 10 years for implementing this system. Moreover, the Indian Aadhaar card has no mention of citizenship, it is basically a biometric card. A lot of changes are needed to materialise this. A committee has been set up to execute it."
Ali said he thought up the plan while serving as ambassador in France. "It is no more a dream. Travel without visa is going to be a reality and so there will be no requirement of passport. People will be able to move without visa and efforts are on for this," he said and added that diplomats and officials are now able to travel without visa.
"Soon, citizens over 65 will be able to move without visa and will immediately be getting a visa for five years. We are concerned with patients and they will get free en-try. Minor children, too, will get that advantage soon."
Bangladesh minister for road transport and bridges Obaidul Quader, who is also general secretary of the ruling Awami League, said at the event that after the murder of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, his name was prohibited at Vijay Diwas celebrations for the next 21 years. "India and Bangladesh have faced terrorism and fundamentalism problems, so we need to fight it," he added.
Quader, who underwent training in Dehradun to participate in the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971, said the bilateral relationship was now at its best, so he wanted a solution to the Teesta water-sharing issue. "We want a practical and logical solution to the water-sharing issue. We hope Mamata didi will take a positive stand."
Quader will call on Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee along with an Awami League delegation. He requested Bengal PHE and panchayat minister Subrata Mukherjee, who was present at the programme, to coax the CM on the Teesta issue.

Isn't the travel to India pretty much the same for the BDs. Sincere hope that our govt doesn't go ahead with this. It's recent secular rants worries me.

[Karthik]

Govt says no plans to link Aadhar to real estate deals, nice way to fight corruption.

[Kabir]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 141906.cms

India and Bangla eye travel without visas
Kolkata: India and Bangladesh are moving towards a visaless regime as practised between France and Germany and many European nations, Bangladesh high commissioner to India Syed Muazzem Ali said on Tuesday at the deputy high commission during the concluding programme of Vijay Diwas.
The septuagenarian diplomat said the two nations were working on a World Bank project to execute smooth movement of Indo-Bangla citizens without passport based on the Indian Aadhaar card numbers and the Bangladesh national registry.
Ali, however, is apprehensive that as the system will take time to be implemented, he might not see it in his lifetime. "It can take up to 10 years for implementing this system. Moreover, the Indian Aadhaar card has no mention of citizenship, it is basically a biometric card. A lot of changes are needed to materialise this. A committee has been set up to execute it."
Ali said he thought up the plan while serving as ambassador in France. "It is no more a dream. Travel without visa is going to be a reality and so there will be no requirement of passport. People will be able to move without visa and efforts are on for this," he said and added that diplomats and officials are now able to travel without visa.
"Soon, citizens over 65 will be able to move without visa and will immediately be getting a visa for five years. We are concerned with patients and they will get free en-try. Minor children, too, will get that advantage soon."
Bangladesh minister for road transport and bridges Obaidul Quader, who is also general secretary of the ruling Awami League, said at the event that after the murder of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, his name was prohibited at Vijay Diwas celebrations for the next 21 years. "India and Bangladesh have faced terrorism and fundamentalism problems, so we need to fight it," he added.
Quader, who underwent training in Dehradun to participate in the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971, said the bilateral relationship was now at its best, so he wanted a solution to the Teesta water-sharing issue. "We want a practical and logical solution to the water-sharing issue. We hope Mamata didi will take a positive stand."
Quader will call on Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee along with an Awami League delegation. He requested Bengal PHE and panchayat minister Subrata Mukherjee, who was present at the programme, to coax the CM on the Teesta issue.

Isn't the travel to India pretty much the same for the BDs. Sincere hope that our govt doesn't go ahead with this. It's recent secular rants worries me.

I hope our govt. is not that senseless to pass this

[Chandragupta]

https://twitter.com/sirjadeja/status/943177273410125825
New gen trio of Guj commenting on Modi, hatred and contempt is overflowing

I think Mevani has most probably converted. He is a closet Christian or a Muslim.

[Deans]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 141906.cms

Isn't the travel to India pretty much the same for the BDs. Sincere hope that our govt doesn't go ahead with this. It's recent secular rants worries me.

I hope our govt. is not that senseless to pass this

The problem is with people walking across the border illegally, not passengers flying in by air. Its not as if BD's currently applying for visas are
properly screened to see that they are not an immigration risk. The more significant measure is proper fencing /patrolling of the border, which Rajnathji has said is a priority.

[syam]

https://twitter.com/sirjadeja/status/943177273410125825
New gen trio of Guj commenting on Modi, hatred and contempt is overflowing

This is consequence for our actions. We focus too much on our own leaders that we forget what happens if we give space to our enemies.
Lets reap the consequences to our own stupidity.

People bashing BJP for betraying them. They tend to forget that they have nothing else to rely on. Even simple misstep can give footing to anti-hindu forces. But who cares. Our useless hindus are very naive.

Let's think about the situation,
1. What happens once Modiji time is over?
- Only one time anyone gets lucky. Don't think we are going to get another selfless leader after this. If you guys think you will have some mythical leader in future who surpasses him, it's fools dream. There is no sage in our generations. You guys keep forgetting how the situation will be once few years pass the line.
2. What's alternative to BJP?
- BJP is weak to fulfil Hindu aspirations. I agree. But what's next? Once the NaMo generation passes the baton to new gen, what will be our future?
3. Rise of new HIndu party?
- To rise new party, one need solid ideology and institutional back up. Which has this organisational power? Most of hindus are sitting at home type. Who will build this brand new party from scratch? Once we prop the party, what are the chances that they will perform better than BJP?

If you guys still thinking within your own bubble, it's time to come out of it and look at the situation in real time.

If you think that your course corrections are good for the Hindu cause, no, it's not at all good for any one. Every inch you lose for them will be loss for ever. Most of the south is already Christian India. Our border states are already Muslim zones. There is no mythical solution to any of our problems.

No 320. Or No RTE. No temple fund. These are not solutions. These are causalities to our past inaction. Passing bills to rectify this is temporary measure. I doubt any RW poster think in same line. Once he realise how fucked up the situation is, he has to come out of his home and put boots on ground. I don't think anyone is willing. They will keep demand some one else to solve all of their probs.

All this talk is waste if we can't make it into action on the ground.

[Karthik]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 141906.cms

Isn't the travel to India pretty much the same for the BDs. Sincere hope that our govt doesn't go ahead with this. It's recent secular rants worries me.

I hope our govt. is not that senseless to pass this

The problem is with people walking across the border illegally, not passengers flying in by air. Its not as if BD's currently applying for visas are
properly screened to see that they are not an immigration risk. The more significant measure is proper fencing /patrolling of the border, which Rajnathji has said is a priority.

My point is why do we need open border with BD anyway? The resultant security issues will far outweigh any economic benefit. US has open border with Canada, will it have the same with Mexico? This BD diplomat talks of EU, are the frenchies trying to sneak into Germany enmasse and changing demographic of Germany? Apples to oranges comparison.

[bharotshontan]

The illegal immigration into West Bengal by Bangladeshi Muslims isn't what is usurping West Bengals demography. It is enormously higher by multiples birth rate of the local West Bengal Muslims (both Bengali and Urdu speaking) than Hindus that is creating sharp rise in Muslim percentage. Hasn't Bangladesh's fertility rate dropped below West Bengal at this point? I think open access travel can do wonders for northeast connectivity.

[Deans]

The illegal immigration into West Bengal by Bangladeshi Muslims isn't what is usurping West Bengals demography. It is enormously higher by multiples birth rate of the local West Bengal Muslims (both Bengali and Urdu speaking) than Hindus that is creating sharp rise in Muslim percentage. Hasn't Bangladesh's fertility rate dropped below West Bengal at this point? I think open access travel can do wonders for northeast connectivity.

Thats' correct. Also, BD's per capita income is higher than WB and has a higher human devp. index, because of the way WB has been mismanaged.
The threat is from local WB muslims. That said, I'm still all for preventing illegal immigration and throwing out those who have entered illegally.

[Deans]

Dr Praveen Patil is back on twitter with some good insights on Gujarat results.

[Aditya_V]

I've been analysing the Guj & HP results and both have trends largely ignored by the media and likely to be repeated in future.

In

In both states, it was the smaller parties who lost out the most. Whoever took more of the vote from the smaller parties won.
Thus I believe states are increasingly moving to a straight fight between 2 parties or coalitions. To the extent that the smaller parties are more
aligned to Cong, Cong gains. AAP which could have been a spoiler for the Cong, had no impact.

In

If you read my old posts from 2013 I had stated AAP was a creation by INC and related folks to stop BJP in 2014. It is temporary and will be given support when INC is on back foot, otherwise they will keep themselves as irrelevant.

[Karthik]

Why are we restricting to just WB? They are present everywhere from Assam to KA to TN. Also, citizens having high TFR than illegals is very unsound argument. The simple end result is overall higher minority population growth inside our borders. We have to make do regarding connectivity through Silguri corridor, one mistake can't be fixed through another.

[chetak]

[Sachin]

The only way to counter this strategy is to unite hindus. And the only way to do that is by larger/common hindu issues, not issues limited by divisions of caste. But BJP does not have the b@lls to bell that cat.

This would essentially mean to have a more right wing party coming up, which would push the centre-right BJP to take some decisive decisions. Now who and how can such a right wing party be formed? Shiv Sena under Bal Thackeray may have been a possibility. But the old gent is any way now not with us. The present bunch are pretty much becoming a B team of INC.

1. If IB/RAW knew about this meeting, could they not have had the ability to snoop? Videos/Photos/Audio, etc. It was in MSA's house, not in a secure RF-shielded facility in the Pak Embassy.

For all we know, they may have actually done that . But this may also be counter-productive if the "secular" MSM throws up a story that every opposition leader is being snooped/watched? Remember the old episode of Rajiv Ghandy accusing the GoI of snooping on him using Haryana police men . But I do agree with that the BJP is going soft on its opponents.

Tons of patels who were angry with bjp/modi but were asked to not vote for congress and hence stayed back.

Then I feel it was really a good move, and happy that the Gujrathi Patels adopted this line. They did not allow a bigger problem like INC to win, but clearly send out the message to the BJP as well. It is now purely upto the BJP to come out of their sleeping bags and smell coffee. They would have to mend their ways, and bring back the trust of its core voters. I am sure Shri. A. Shah also knows this.

I think Mevani has most probably converted. He is a closet Christian or a Muslim.

If X'ian organisations are supporting some one overtly or covertly, that means the person is one amongst them. The name, outward appearances etc. does not matter. In Kerala, there was a news reader who was really spewing venom against Na.Mo (as if Na.Mo has personally caused her some damage), under the guise of journalistic freedom. Recently the news came out that she was an X'ian convert, had a different name (given in the church) and was just using her old Hindu name (+ father's name) to masqurade as a Hindu. And this lady also was "fortunate" enough to be at the desk, when the channel had to announce the Gujrath election results .

[syam]

Modiji need to keep Arun Jaitly and other RS MPs out of electoral environment. He needs to form some serious counsel of people who can look after BJP. And smooth transfer of power from one person to another.

All things are great as long as they win elections. I see AJ and his pals as some dead weight.

[JohnTitor]

We each seriously need to ask ourselves, how am I helping? Or am I hurting the cause instead?

Do you see Hindus uniting behind someone who tells them they are horrible people? Or BJP paying attention to someone who tells them they don't have balls?

I'm not asking people to unite behind me. I do not have that kind of clout. It is for those in power to do that, fortunately or unfortunately. I contribute where I can make a difference.

BJP cannot prioritize Hindutva over everything else and stay in power.
You contradict yourselves when you say Hindus will not vote for BJP if core interests are not taken care of and in the same breath accuse Hindus of being selfish. So what is it? Will Hindus vote out BJP for Hindutva or are they selfish and looking after their economic interests?

I don't know why people keep speaking as if the two are mutually exclusive. I cannot find a single post or tweet that is asking for purely indic causes and neglect national development, so the rest of the quote is moot.

So why don't you do that? Instead of ranting against BJP, why don't you put your money where your mouth is. Leave your job, go to India, unite Hindus and then you won't need BJP to do your bidding. Why do you think BJP is not trying to unite Hindus? Clearly, its to its advantage. But you are making Hindus united sound trivial. There are plenty of people trying to exactly that from Kanchi seer to RSS to many others. It's slow progress.

What makes you think that I am not in india, an assumption based argument that holds no water.

You are impatient and don't have the b@lls to fight the long battle. You want BJP to do everything for you in a day but you won't contribute except rant every day here. If you are so desperate about it, why don't you quit BRF and work on the ground with Hindus to unite them. Let's see how much progress you will make. For starters, why don't you get Dalits entry into temples? Why don't you let Dalit build their houses among the rest of the villagers instead of them being outcast? Common, show us how much better you are than BJP and the RSS. The stupid RSS has been trying to do this for decades now and being the idiots they are, are no where successful. But its all so trivial to you that you can do it alone.

Again, more assumptions. I have supported more indic causes than I care to mention. I am not seeking your approval.

You have turned a larger political discussion into a personal issue - I will not be responding further to personal barbs. My point was beyond individual contributions. The indics, like Malhotra, SSwamy etc have their place in helping bring to the fore these issues, but only a party and those in power can make things happen in law. No amount of protests can do much against things like freeing temples from govt control and revoking RTE. They can only educate the masses, only politicians and governments can change laws to fix this.

Parties like BJP who come house to house begging for votes for every election, promise to address various indic issues, but none are seen when they get in power.

[Indrad]

In both states, it was the smaller parties who lost out the most. Whoever took more of the vote from the smaller parties won.
Thus I believe states are increasingly moving to a straight fight between 2 parties or coalitions. To the extent that the smaller parties are more
aligned to Cong, Cong gains. AAP which could have been a spoiler for the Cong, had no impact.

In this context the BJP has to be the no 2 party (in the minds of voters) in Orissa and WB and be smarter in alliance formation in states where there are either multiple parties (Bihar, Mah), or where it has no presence (TN).

In Guj, if all core BJP voters had come out to vote (1% increase in overall turnout) or not pressed NOTA, the BJP would have repeated its 2012
performance of 115 seats with a higher vote share than 2012, despite anti-incumbency, DeMo/GST, Floods, Hardik/Jignesh/ etc. BJP workers on the ground did not convert Modiji's appeal to votes, particularly in rural areas, to the extent they did in 2012 & 14.
Allied to this, MOST sitting MLA's in both parties lost. Its probably a combination of poor governance by individual MLA's and high expectations of voters, particularly youth.

thanks for insights and keep them coming deans...
i wrote this myself yesterday somewhere that most nota voters must be 18-25 age group

[Indrad]

https://twitter.com/tavleen_singh/statu ... 9667516416
Tavleen Singh‏Verified account
@tavleen_singh
Damning report by CAG on the Ganga: unspent funds and total absence of a plan. The Prime Minister must take personal charge or nothing will happen. Technology exists, experts exist but there is no political will to clean our most sacred river. Shameful!

[Indrad]

https://epostmortem.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... e.html?m=1
'Arvind kejriwal and his gang are basically Raj thakrey of Delhi ..They know how to make money for themselves using people's sentiments in difficult situations''