The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[shravanp]

Modi found his voice and gave some massive jhappad to the Congoons today. But that is not going to be enough to win 2019. It actually might backfire amongst those who are climbing the fence to go to the other side - aka middle class.

First, it is possible for the other side to paint him as arrogant and boastful. Second, Congoons sound more credible when they say that he should stop talking about Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi and focus on fixing his shortcomings like jobs and inflation.

I quite frankly don't understand the much grievance of "middle-class". Their protests, whining are reflecting Arvind Kejriwal type of entitlement bunch of voters. They are paying taxes lower than the average middle class around the world.

[KL Dubey]

Lots of discussion on May 2019 election, but let us not ignore the upcoming next few elections.

It seems the BJP is within sight of winning Tripura:

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-n ... 8/1053650/

Things have changed in Nagaland since my last post. BJP has a new partner (NDPP):

https://scroll.in/article/867636/the-r ... cal-gamble

Meghalaya - it looks like NPP is the front runner and a post-poll alliance with BJP is more than possible:

https://scroll.in/article/866866/a-home ... r-to-polls

[SSundar]

I quite frankly don't understand the much grievance of "middle-class". Their protests, whining are reflecting Arvind Kejriwal type of entitlement bunch of voters. They are paying taxes lower than the average middle class around the world.

DeMo seems to be a major factor. Many ITvity types seem to have lost their jobs recently as the bigwigs are readjusting to a world post-H1B bonanza.

The inability to directly quote job growth numbers will be hurting Modi big time in 2019. 3.5 ought to be enough time for a reformer such as Modi to create a reliable employment reporting mechanism. In the absence of that, Congress claims of "Modi failed to create jobs" sounds credible especially when Modi does not take it head on.

[Supratik]

Visit BRF eco thread to see studies on jobs data and not go by gossip.


Meanwhile, in Tripura. Maybe the bhadralok Commies should now move to Nepal to save their careers.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/report ... ra-rallies

[SSundar]

Been following the data on BRF myself. The issue is Aam Aadmi does not follow BRF. They need reassurance from the leadership.

[Primus]

^
I think the problem is that no amount of reassurance from Modi or AJ can make people happy because the other side is trumpeting lies all the time through their various mouthpieces in the media. After the speech yesterday, Turdesai and Co had a segment on TV lamenting the 'lack of information' on Rafale and jobs in his speech. Nothing ever changes.....

[Trilobite]

Govt. flagship Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana does not seem to be doing too well. Most poor are not able to afford to pay for the gas. They buy only a few cylinder if any at all.

PM's plan for free gas connections failing as govt had been warned it would

[SSundar]

^
I think the problem is that no amount of reassurance from Modi or AJ can make people happy because the other side is trumpeting lies all the time through their various mouthpieces in the media. After the speech yesterday, Turdesai and Co had a segment on TV lamenting the 'lack of information' on Rafale and jobs in his speech. Nothing ever changes.....

Turdesai and Co would be factually correct although their intent is hardly noble. Modi did not talk about Rafale and gave the usual Mudra tag line on jobs. Jaitley attempted to address Rafale in Parliament amidst noise by the Congoons.

It would be great if this NDA government can at least appoint an expert committee to create a comprehensive employment & incomes report that will be published on a quarterly basis to show trends in employment - both formal jobs and informal entrepreneurship - across the country.

[SSundar]

Govt. flagship Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana does not seem to be doing too well. Most poor are not able to afford to pay for the gas. They buy only a few cylinder if any at all.

PM's plan for free gas connections failing as govt had been warned it would

Whenever an article quotes Mint, Quint, Squint, Scroll ityadi .in URLs to make a point on Modi, the BS radar of most RWers goes to DefCon 3.

The basic complaint is that the government only addressed one of the bottlenecks - the high price of gas connections. Valid point. I don't understand how that would make the scheme a FAILURE. Those households still have a gas connection and have tried the benefits of going to LPG. When they can afford to, a reasonable percentage of them would renew their cylinders. Now the government has to tweak other parameters to keep them buying cylinders. Work in progress.

This is like saying Swacch Bharat is a total failure because people are "going" back to the fields. It takes time and work to change a habit.

[Trilobite]

Just because one is RW does not mean one should not sample news/opinion from a variety of sources. Otherwise one is likely to live in a bubble! Business-Standard from which I posted this article is in general tends to be very pro Modi, so there has to be reason they have decided to syndicate this article, may be a wake up call? Recall that this scheme was a major vote getter for BJP in UP election.

[SSundar]

Just because one is RW does not mean one should not sample news/opinion from a variety of sources. Otherwise one is likely to live in a bubble! Business-Standard from which I posted this article is in general tends to be very pro Modi, so there has to be reason they have decided to syndicate this article, may be a wake up call? Recall that this scheme was a major vote getter for BJP in UP election.

Not living in a bubble. We can treat this as a heads-up to the government that things are beginning to fall apart.

In the short term, does the government have any options on the table to resolve this?

[hanumadu]

Govt. flagship Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana does not seem to be doing too well. Most poor are not able to afford to pay for the gas. They buy only a few cylinder if any at all.

PM's plan for free gas connections failing as govt had been warned it would

The scheme is not 100% success, its only 80% success, blah blah blah...

[SSundar]

^^^ This should be a lesson for Modi. He should have taken a leaf from JJ's two leaves and given freebies like laptops, fans and TVs where there are no refills to buy.

But seriously I respect what Trilobite says. Indian janta are fickle. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the beneficiaries dump Modi because he did not give them more free cylinders. Or worse, the Congoons promise free cylinders.

[Raju]

Modi has proven to be a fake prophet. It sharply illustrates how severely short of credible leaders Indian politics is today. Despite his good intentions, that is all what Modi has on his side, Modi had to fall back on same old bureaucracy to implement some half-baked plans which they promptly proceeded to screw it further. Aadhar has all the potential to be a draconian law against free speech a e surely will be used to that effect in future, if left unmolested and intact by "supreme court". Petrol taxation and increased GST is an extortion economy which is based upon double taxation of middle class and some other tax payers. It shows up shallowness of Indian economy and reflects sad reality that majority of Indian economy is not sustained by manufacturing but by a rewl estate bubble. Prick that real estate bubble further and India will get down to level of south africa.

If in 2019 all we have to show is GST, Demon, amdavad-mumbai bullet train then it will either be hung parliament, coalition govt or pappu sarkar. All these claims of structural reforms is like pakistani claims of *we are at crossroads* as they have been from last 50 years. First time this term was used by ZA Bhutto, musharraf propagated it and NS repeated it. They will continue to be at crossroads in future too as any attempt to cross the road will result in roadkill. Structural reforms is not possible in a country where even a Modi does not show interest in reforming bureaucracy. If even a sanyasi like Modi cannot reform structure then nobody is going to do so. And that is why stock market is falling.

[Vikas]

Do you guys really have some finger on the pulse to know that NM is going to lose GE in 2019 or its your own insecurities playing out. As I see it, BJP keeps winning election after election despite dooms day prediction and I still have to meet a soul who was Pro-Modi earlier and has turned Anti-Modi in last 4 years.
SM is no indicator of how elections will play out nor is BRF (despite claims of ahead of the curve). Suddenly the nation hasn't fallen in love with Pappu or his Pidi's, despite all the paid news they make.

[Vikas]

Modi has proven to be a fake prophet. It sharply illustrates how severely short of credible leaders Indian politics is today. Despite his good intentions, that is all what Modi has on his side, Modi had to fall back on same old bureaucracy to implement some half-baked plans which they promptly proceeded to screw it further. Aadhar has all the potential to be a draconian law against free speech a e surely will be used to that effect in future, if left unmolested and intact by "supreme court". Petrol taxation and increased GST is an extortion economy which is based upon double taxation of middle class and some other tax payers. It shows up shallowness of Indian economy and reflects sad reality that majority of Indian economy is not sustained by manufacturing but by a rewl estate bubble. Prick that real estate bubble further and India will get down to level of south africa.

If in 2019 all we have to show is GST, Demon, amdavad-mumbai bullet train then it will either be hung parliament, coalition govt or pappu sarkar. All these claims of structural reforms is like pakistani claims of *we are at crossroads* as they have been from last 50 years. First time this term was used by ZA Bhutto, musharraf propagated it and NS repeated it. They will continue to be at crossroads in future too as any attempt to cross the road will result in roadkill. Structural reforms is not possible in a country where even a Modi does not show interest in reforming bureaucracy. If even a sanyasi like Modi cannot reform structure then nobody is going to do so. And that is why stock market is falling.

Just highlighted few sections on how one falls for his own negative narrative. You r opening line gave away rest of the half baked claims on NM Sarkaar.

[chetak]

Modi has proven to be a fake prophet. It sharply illustrates how severely short of credible leaders Indian politics is today. Despite his good intentions, that is all what Modi has on his side, Modi had to fall back on same old bureaucracy to implement some half-baked plans which they promptly proceeded to screw it further. Aadhar has all the potential to be a draconian law against free speech a e surely will be used to that effect in future, if left unmolested and intact by "supreme court". Petrol taxation and increased GST is an extortion economy which is based upon double taxation of middle class and some other tax payers. It shows up shallowness of Indian economy and reflects sad reality that majority of Indian economy is not sustained by manufacturing but by a rewl estate bubble. Prick that real estate bubble further and India will get down to level of south africa.

If in 2019 all we have to show is GST, Demon, amdavad-mumbai bullet train then it will either be hung parliament, coalition govt or pappu sarkar. All these claims of structural reforms is like pakistani claims of *we are at crossroads* as they have been from last 50 years. First time this term was used by ZA Bhutto, musharraf propagated it and NS repeated it. They will continue to be at crossroads in future too as any attempt to cross the road will result in roadkill. Structural reforms is not possible in a country where even a Modi does not show interest in reforming bureaucracy. If even a sanyasi like Modi cannot reform structure then nobody is going to do so. And that is why stock market is falling.

NM is popular and that gives many folks a rash in their nether regions. A persistent itch that just cannot be scratched.

Ha has achieved more in a few years than the entire retarded dynastic clan(s) have achieved in all these years and decades since independence and in all the states put together.

national losers are filled with a white rage that can only be expressed in terms of puerile criticisms and desperately trying to take down the undoubtedly good work done by him

These are also people who right out of the womb, hit the ground running, and all these jokers won Olympic golds in their sprints to benefit the country, via the swiss banks, of course.

These are also the aholes who NEVER, EVER made one single mistake in their entire lives, they were always right, first out of the box and the aam aadmi all go to temples to pray to them every day.

Just look at the commie paradises that these losers have established and run in KER, WB, Tripura, and Dravida Nadu.

Let the stock markets fail, who gives a rats, because, it will, by the globally established and ancient process of personal greed, auto stabilize and correct itself on its own. No need to pander to these antinational aholes.

These stockmarket aholes only ever look after themselves, always loathe to pay taxes and rarely file IT returns, they look only to ripoff the investing public through scams and thieving schemes.

[Vikas]

I want to write a satire on "Chathrapati Sivaji in the times of RW, Left commies, SM, Presstitutes and Libturds".
Imagine how each one would have reacted to his actions while building Maratha Empire.

[Sachin]

I would not be surprised if this is the start of the final chapter against the perpetrators of the various scams and the generally corrupt.

I am not anti-Modi (still feel he is the best bet around), but I feel the government is kind of losing its steam. This is when ideally they should be putting in more efforts, as this is the last year. At least now Modi should stop this Sabka Saath.. and don the hat of ruthless politician. To be frank, I am not seeing any strong case against any of the INC top brass even after four years. Yes, Laloo is sitting inside prison for a change. But what is happening on National Herald, Chidambaram & Son etc. etc.?

DeMo seems to be a major factor. Many ITvity types seem to have lost their jobs recently as the bigwigs are readjusting to a world post-H1B bonanza.

Few weeks back, there was a training in our Co (I work for a IT Subedar-Major (not IT major) Co.) and one task in that was to debate on a controversial topic, without getting personal. The controversial topic was "De.Mo". Now the trainees were IT professionals, experience range of around 4-8 years and these people are all paid well. In a group of around 10 individuals, 3 fully supported De.Mo (I know for sure, that two of them were RSS chaps). Around 4 folks were okay with De.Mo but wanted it to be done with more advance notice etc. (doing so would help others to launder their black money, but these "educated" people could not sense that). The remaining three were out & right against De.Mo and Modi, with one declaring that he would want to see Modi out of politics. Two of them were "peacefools" and one chap, did seem to have lost some good money. What I wanted to say was that even in a "typical middle class IT-Vity" family, there are people who do have unaccounted wealth (perhaps handed over from parents etc. etc.). De.Mo has hit such people also pretty badly.

To sum it up, I would wish to see more from the BJP to ensure that they scrape through in 2019. Again my sources are only media (and social & main stream), and going by that I do get a feeling that Modi & Co are not even able to pluck (for now) low lying fruits.

[Deans]

I quite frankly don't understand the much grievance of "middle-class". Their protests, whining are reflecting Arvind Kejriwal type of entitlement bunch of voters. They are paying taxes lower than the average middle class around the world.

Fully agree. Even if there was no tax evasion in India, only about 30 million Indians earn more than the 3 lac p.a. that qualifies them to be taxpayers (25 million of then pay - at an average rate that is the lowest in the G20). Our direct tax /GDP ratio is low. India can neither increase the tax base significantly, nor has it opted to increase tax rates. I expect the middle class will complain even if income tax was abolished.

The single biggest problem in India IMO, is that inequality has been increasing - more so since 1991. Between 1991 and 2013 the bottom 90% of the pop had their income grow by under 1% p.a The 9% making up the middle class had income growth at the same as the national average while the top 1% grew at 8-10% p.a. Each of these 3 segments had roughly 1/3rd of income. Thus we were a nation with not only huge inequality (more than the US) but disparity in income growth which was also the worst in the world. Weather it is explicitly stated or not, Modi ji is trying to change that. ABV's govt did not do so, as they were content to pander to the trader class (making up some of the 9% who take 1/3rd of income).

This is an audacious attempt to fundamentally reshape India without resorting to Communist style policies. Naturally the top 1% (most of whom are in that bracket due to crony capitalism or birth) want to safeguard their privileges. So do the middle class, who see the bottom 90% trying to move up and take over some of the positions they felt they had to hold in perpetuity. Easy access to information (internet on cellphones) and high literacy has made the bottom 90% very restive and willing to go beyond caste/ region when voting.

2019 will be decided by how rural India feels this govt has met their aspirations. In this context, the concern of the Govt should be the quality of governance in states it rules. In every state assembly election since 2014, the BJP's vote share was about 8% lower than GE 2014 - implying that if one looks at local issues rather than Modi vs, Rahul, or UPA misrule, there is little to choose in terms of quality of local governance. UP was the only exception to this, since Yogi ji `did a Modi'. This govt has done better than its predecessors in addressing poverty. Has it done enough ?

[Sachin]

So do the middle class, who see the bottom 90% trying to move up and take over some of the positions they felt they had to hold in perpetuity. Easy access to information (internet on cellphones) and high literacy has made the bottom 90% very restive and willing to go beyond caste/ region when voting.

I am one one in the "middle class" group, and totally echo the bolded part. In fact, I could not have put it better. Even in the middle class there is a huge group of people (I can see them in my own circle & family) who have been firmly entrenched in the "Congress" style of governance. Many of them are die-hard supporters for the INC, for the same reason. These people know that their past days of glory are long gone and today they are "middle class". But with some efforts, the Congress regimes allowed them to retain some of their last shreds of glory. This was by ensuring that people below them do not get much scope to come up in life. And INC also had such a good eco-system which enabled looting by all people who were capable of doing it. De.Mo etc. has hit such gangs of "middle class" as well (who mainly played their games by taking truck loads of cash etc.).

[Indrad]

Rajnikant & Kamal Hassan to fight election together? But we were told Rajnikan is dharmic while KH is asura .. what’s happening kindly help!

[Deans]

Under Demo, we had roughly 15 lac crore deposited.

5.4 lac crore was deposited by just 1.8 lac people.
another 5 lac crore by 18 lac people
90% of the above either did not file an IT return, or their returns were nowhere commensurate with their ITR.

The rest of India deposited 4.6 lac crore. Of that the bottom half deposited approx Rs 3000 each and the top half Rs 42000 each.

My concern with the govt is that is is not sharing what action has been taken against high value depositors (who should face a double whammy of DeMo and the benami law) .The clean money website which is supposed to detail action taken has not been updated since May 17. I have written to the PMO and FM to at least update their own website, to no avail.

[Deans]

Sorry if this is OT, but I currently face a problem which is indicative of how India actually functions, even in highly publicized initiatives, in Delhi.

I have quit the corporate world and I have a large accumulated amount in my PF.
I wished to withdraw this, as I'm entitled to, if I'm not working. I live in Bangalore, the PF account is in Delhi.
I can only withdraw this online if my PF is linked to Aadhar. I cannot link it as my year of birth is entered wrongly due to a clerical error (day and month are correct). I've been trying to do this since Dec - my ex employer has had to repeatedly do the rounds of the PF office, where nothing moves even with `chai-pani'.
There is a provision to withdraw money without Aadhar linkage. My ex employer and I made a joint application months ago. The application cannot even be traced (we have acknowledged copies). It is impossible to submit a grievance online through the much touted grievance redressal system (link does not work). I was the company CEO, trying to get work done in a very IT enabled EPF office in New Delhi. I shudder to think how the common man manages. IT enabled EPF is supposed to be the biggest achievement of the labour ministry !

[Vikas]

Sorry if this is OT, but I currently face a problem which is indicative of how India actually functions, even in highly publicized initiatives, in Delhi.

I have quit the corporate world and I have a large accumulated amount in my PF.
I wished to withdraw this, as I'm entitled to, if I'm not working. I live in Bangalore, the PF account is in Delhi.
I can only withdraw this online if my PF is linked to Aadhar. I cannot link it as my year of birth is entered wrongly due to a clerical error (day and month are correct). I've been trying to do this since Dec - my ex employer has had to repeatedly do the rounds of the PF office, where nothing moves even with `chai-pani'.
There is a provision to withdraw money without Aadhar linkage. My ex employer and I made a joint application months ago. The application cannot even be traced (we have acknowledged copies). It is impossible to submit a grievance online through the much touted grievance redressal system (link does not work). I was the company CEO, trying to get work done in a very IT enabled EPF office in New Delhi. I shudder to think how the common man manages. IT enabled EPF is supposed to be the biggest achievement of the labour ministry !

Did you write to EPF dept. ?
My experience has been that they are pretty prompt in responding back and sorting your issues.
Aadhar has been a bane for many activities by adding one more layer of pain even though Aadhar was meant for identification only.
I have a issue of 2 UAN numbers issued to me (thank you my previous employer) and now I am trying to get the money transferred to my current one and deactivate the other. I have been asked to fill up FORM 13 and submit.